Squeaky Sphincter Time
Yes, it’s squeaky sphincter time, again folks.
I saw a twitter friend having a mini meltdown after the Chelsea win over United this weekend. The gist of it was “How could Arsenal put itself in this situation. How could Arsenal give away so many points, stupidly, earlier in the season.”
Well, a reasonable question/view on the one hand, but…instead let me take the counterpoint to that point. Once again, Arsenal had a very poor/slow start to the season. So, to be in the chase, we must have been pretty good lately, which is very encouraging going forward.
But how lately? And how good?
Here WERE a few myths about this team/squad
1. They couldn’t defend and didn’t practice (See my rebuttal in this blog (It’s Not The Defense, Stoopid)
2. They couldn’t defend set pieces (See my rebuttal in this blog (It’s Not The Defense, Stoopid)
Here’s a little teaser graph from that blog…
3. They couldn’t and therefore would never put a run together. Asked and answered.
4. They had no leadership
5. They had no winning spirit.
6. They are a million miles away from being capable of contending
Now, let me show you evidence focused on point #6. Because, it really answers points 1 through 6. Also, if you didn’t catch it, please read through my blog on defense: (It’s Not The Defense, Stoopid)
Right. let’s get down to the dirty. Yes, we had a very slow start to the season, and a slow middle. It is a season of three thirds (rather difficult for an Irishman to say and still be taken seriously. I have some experience in this matter.)
Now, just before we start, clearly this team needs strengthening. And we all generally agree where that strengthening needs to take place over the summer. But how decent a base is this team/squad entering the summer. Or put another way, how far off the pace is this squad, allowing for the fact that it took a little while to gel??
Would you believe me if I told you that this team of ours is the third best team in the league if you erase August 15th through September 30th? 3rd best in terms of average points won per game and therefore consistency?
Would you believe me if I told you that this team is the second best team in the league if you erase August 15th through November 14th? 2nd best in terms of points won and therefore consistency? I doubt you would. If true, that would mean we are the 2nd best team in the league for the last 2 thirds of the season.
Would you believe me if I told you that this team is the best team in the league if you start counting from Feb 1st? Measured by average number of points per game, we are. Of course the sample size is starting to get small at that point but it surely is a good measure of strong finishing form, if not quite proof that we are the best team in the league
When you start slowly, and we all know the reasons why we did, whether you think they are acceptable reasons, or not, the only thing you can do is finish strong.
So here’s the data. A chart of the average number of points per game, measured from each date to the end of the season thus far…
So what can we conclude? Only that this squad is a lot, lot closer to a contender than we thought at our low point during the season. Add some extra quality and we should be the real deal.
Let’s pray we make the top 4 and push on in the summer.
Here are some Photos from the QPR game. Not a classic. But it was 3 points. And I think the photos tell a story that maybe we didn’t see from our respective vantage points during the match.
Oh, and by the way, some of you fuckers owe Theo an apology. 2 goals in the last 2. That’s 4 points, instead of 0. And Sagna’s fuck up against United was 100% on Sagna, so don’t try laying that on Theo. But let’s not play Theo through the center, eh. He’s doing fine where he is.
Hi Poz,
Our performances for the last 10 games would have been title challenging, except for the poor start to the season. If we get 73 points – that’s a step up from last season – and the far better goals record in defense and only 5 goals scored less than last season (2 games to go!).
let’s hope we get a decent uneventful summer (no major competitions), clear out some out of contract players, find good loans for some promising players and get in the 2 or 3 squad upgrades.
Really feel optimistic for Next Season.
Good man. That’s the spirit!
it will be a huge disappointment if we miss out on CL football, especially when we are in such a great shape as a club. ive been really impressed with kos and mert all season they have been top class. what i struggle to understand is wengers decision to buy giroud, it was such a huge gamble bringing him in… something a club like arsenal shouldn’t be doing.
bringing in berbatov should have been a no brainer imo, i can’t see any good reason why we shouldn’t have gone for him. i was spitting feathers when heard he was going to fulham…
great blog mate
On our slow startof the season, would you think that’s because we have to deal with new recruits?
Certainly. None of the front 6 had played together pretty much before 12/13. We struggled with balance throughout midfield and attack. we still do, to a large extent, but we’ve found a way to win, lately.
Absolutely. And add to what Poznan says that that we had to change our style to suit OG.
Referring to the “average points per game” graph – for me, the key is to compare the 2012-13 season to the last 8.
The key question for me is – are we better off this season than last?
If there is a similar trend in the past, the optimism in this post is unfounded.
I hope I’m wrong and would love nothing more than a season of real contention for a trophy.
Feroz
Why don’t you look up the stats and do that comparison?
Excellent post.
Great photos – that one of Santi in an aerial duel is hilarious. And love the ones of Merts hugging teammates. Our defence has been awesome and I put it down to the aftermath of that Sp*ds game, when they all took responsibility.
The foundation is in place.
So, looking at next season. ManU gets a new mgr, Chelsea gets a new mgr, City gets a new mgr (most probably). Whereas Arsenal have a pretty settled team and mgr right now – there may be additions, but not the kind who will need to play even if not fitting in. Also, with new mgrs. some old people will sulk, some new will take time to bed in. Sounds to me like next season the stars could be aligning for us having a decent shot at the title. And, shhh, don’t say it out aloud yet 🙂
Poz – I’m late to the party, I know – but you’re adding a little rose-tinted snakeoil salesmanship to your graph analysis. The way I see it – 2013 is our 5th WORST year out of the 12 you sampled for Goals Against. Making it “quite a bad year”, and not a “very good year”. Don’t know how that affects the dependent conclusions….
If you don’t tell anyone, I won’t. 😉
Guessing you didn’t understand the any point made in the blog then, mate. On the plus side, you are exactly the kind of reader I was attempting to reach. So that’s kind of cool. 😉
5th worst season, you say? Well, THAT IS the point. Because you know what else 2013 is? The 5th worst season of the 14 for the Top 10 as a whole. (It’s around now one shouts out “Eureka!”)
In fact, as I’m sure we all know, we have conceded the 2nd fewest goals in the league, thus far. Which, when combined with your correct observation on this being our 5th worst season, underlines my overall thesis. All boats are rising and falling with the tide. So you can’t simply compare AFC’s different seasons for goals against or for. Apples and oranges.
If I am selling snake oil, you should drink it. It apparently is the real deal. 😉
“Guessing you didn’t understand the any point made in the blog then, mate.”
Any point? ANY point? There is NO any point! http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=sPDoZO5Tm_k
(Doubly appropriate, that… LOL)
You got me mate. That green circle saying “good years” is like the glowing blob on the end of the deep-sea anglerfish in Finding Nemo. And I fell for it. Touché!
All your cleverness with your new graphing App is going over my head, obviously. I understand things like “apocalypsy” and “Carthaginian”. Would the parasitic nerd with the number-bent please return to the basement and release the old Poz. The one who seemed to think with his funny bone?!
(Just kidding, mate. I got your logic. Have made that observation a few times myself. And – truth be known, I do enjoy your ‘serious’ side.)
Oh. And nice graph app, by the way. 😉
PS: last comment by @AFC_Invincibles should read by @invinciblog. Accounts switched. 😉 Cheers.